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为黄金写讣告还为时过早?投行:黄金还远未见底

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月15日 11:46:01
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(原)(标)(题)(:为)(黄)(金)(写)(讣)(告)(还)(为)(时)(过)(早)(?投)(行)(:黄)(金)(还)(远)(未)(见)(底)(但)(多)(头)(将)(卷)(土)(重)(来)(
FX168财)(经)(报)(社)((香)(港)()讯)(道)(明)(证)(券)(周)(四)((6月)(28日)()表)(示)(,短)(期)(内)(金)(价)(可)(能)(会)(进)(一)(步)(下)(跌)(,但)(随)(着)(美)(元)(失)(去)(动)(能)(,投)(资)(者)(在)(地)(缘)(政)(治)(和)(贸)(易)(问)(题)(上)(寻)(求)(避)(险)(,黄)(金)(料)(最)(终)(能)(够)(复)(苏)(。
该)(行)(策)(略)(师)(BartMelek、RyanMcKay和)(DanielGhali在)(周)(四)(晚)(些)(时)(候)(发)(布)(的)(报)(告)(中)(预)(测)(,在)(2019年)(的)(最)(后)(三)(个)(月)(,金)(价)(均)(价)(将)(为)(1375美)(元)(/盎)(司)(。这)(份)(报)(告)(的)(标)(题)(是)(:“为)(黄)(金)(写)(讣)(告)(还)(为)(时)(过)(早)(。”
本)(月)(黄)(金)(走)(弱)(。策)(略)(师)(们)(表)(示)(,“很)(有)(可)(能)(我)(们)(还)(没)(有)(看)(到)(底)(部)(”,因)(为)(交)(易)(员)(一)(直)(忽)(视)(美)(国)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(的)(下)(降)(、经)(济)(数)(据)(疲)(弱)(的)(迹)(象)(以)(及)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(的)(丧)(失)(。相)(反)(,黄)(金)(一)(直)(在)(对)(美)(元)(走)(强)(和)(技)(术)(图)(表)(方)(面)(的)(考)(虑)(做)(出)(反)(应)(。
道)(明)(写)(道)(:“如)(果)(2016年)(11月)(底)(之)(前)(的)(死)(叉)(可)(以)(提)(供)(指)(引)(,那)(么)(跌)(至)(1230美)(元)(甚)(至)(更)(低)(将)(具)(有)(真)(正)(的)(可)(能)(性)(。”
不)(过)(,策)(略)(师)(们)(表)(示)(,他)(们)(预)(计)(黄)(金)(将)(出)(现)(长)(期)(复)(苏)(,因)(为)(市)(场)(已)(经)(严)(重)(偏)(向)(做)(空)(,道)(明)(预)(计)(美)(元)(在)(某)(一)(时)(刻)(将)(开)(始)(走)(弱)(。黄)(金)(往)(往)(与)(美)(元)(走)(势)(相)(反)(,而)(美)(元)(在)(6月)(的)(大)(部)(分)(时)(间)(里)(一)(直)(走)(强)(。
该)(行)(还)(指)(出)(,美)(国)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(仍)(低)(于)(3%,而)(贸)(易)(战)(争)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(抑)(制)(了)(全)(球)(经)(济)(的)(乐)(观)(情)(绪)(。
策)(略)(师)(们)(表)(示)(,他)(们)(预)(计)(许)(多)(黄)(金)(交)(易)(商)(将)(开)(始)(“收)(回)(他)(们)(在)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(方)(面)(的)(过)(高)(预)(期)(。”当)(市)(场)(预)(期)(央)(行)(将)(进)(行)(更)(多)(的)(货)(币)(紧)(缩)(时)(,黄)(金)(往)(往)(会)(受)(到)(影)(响)(,反)(之)(亦)(然)(。
策)(略)(师)(们)(质)(疑)(,美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(鲍)(威)(尔)(是)(否)(会)(热)(衷)(于)(在)(当)(前)(的)(货)(币)(紧)(缩)(周)(期)(中)(大)(幅)(提)(高)(利)(率)(预)(期)(,尤)(其)(是)(考)(虑)(到)(“不)(稳)(定)(的)(全)(球)(贸)(易)(状)(况)(”正)(在)(给)(经)(济)(增)(长)(和)(信)(心)(带)(来)(风)(险)(。
“务)(实)(的)(态)(度)(是)(美)(联)(储)(的)(一)(部)(分)(,当)(我)(们)(接)(近)(美)(国)(紧)(缩)(周)(期)(的)(尾)(声)(,而)(大)(多)(数)(其)(他)(主)(要)(央)(行)(政)(策)(仍)(处)(于)(正)(常)(化)(的)(早)(期)(阶)(段)(,这)(最)(终)(料)(会)(削)(弱)(美)(元)(,相)(当)(利)(好)(黄)(金)(,”道)(明)(称)(。
此)(外)(,道)(明)(表)(示)(,股)(市)(波)(动)(性)(的)(加)(大)(、地)(缘)(政)(治)(和)(贸)(易)(引)(发)(的)(紧)(张)(局)(势)(,应)(会)(提)(振)(人)(们)(对)(黄)(金)(的)(需)(求)(。此)(外)(,美)(国)(庞)(大)(且)(不)(断)(增)(长)(的)(赤)(字)(可)(能)(会)(促)(使)(市)(场)(转)(向)(黄)(金)(。
“我)(们)(还)(认)(为)(,华)(盛)(顿)(咄)(咄)(逼)(人)(的)(贸)(易)(言)(论)(所)(带)(来)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(,很)(快)(就)(会)(影)(响)(到)(美)(国)(本)(身)(,”道)(明)(指)(出)(,“这)(应)(该)(会)(促)(使)(白)(宫)(缓)(和)(激)(进)(的)(言)(论)(,这)(应)(该)(会)(减)(轻)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(货)(币)(的)(下)(行)(压)(力)(,因)(为)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(货)(币)(大)(幅)(贬)(值)(,这)(对)(黄)(金)(是)(一)(个)(巨)(大)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(。”返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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