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A股迎来弹升新周期

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月14日 14:00:51
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(原)(标)(题)(:重)(塑)(预)(期)(A股)(迎)(来)(弹)(升)(新)(周)(期)(
  虽)(然)(长)(假)(即)(将)(来)(临)(,但)(多)(头)(并)(未)(削)(弱)(斗)(志)(。在)(周)(三)(,放)(量)(攻)(击)(前)(行)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(重)(返)(2800点)(。只)(是)(短)(线)(涨)(幅)(过)(大)(,大)(金)(融)(股)(、大)(消)(费)(股)(等)(涨)(升)(主)(线)(有)(了)(一)(定)(的)(抛)(压)(,导)(致)(A股)(的)(走)(势)(在)(午)(后)(有)(所)(受)(阻)(。不)(过)(,这)(并)(不)(改)(变)(市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(对)(后)(续)(走)(势)(的)(乐)(观)(预)(期)(。看)(来)(,在)(即)(将)(到)(来)(的)(四)(季)(度)(,A股)(走)(势)(值)(得)(期)(待)(。
对)(于)(今)(年)(以)(来)(的)(A股)(市)(场)(走)(势)(来)(说)(,的)(确)(不)(尽)(如)(人)(意)(。其)(中)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(一)(度)(探)(至)(2644.30点)(,面)(对)(如)(此)(走)(势)(,市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(的)(信)(心)(渐)(渐)(下)(沉)(,对)(经)(济)(前)(景)(也)(有)(了)(较)(为)(谨)(慎)(的)(看)(法)(。毕)(竟)(证)(券)(市)(场)(是)(产)(业)(经)(济)(的)(晴)(雨)(表)(。如)(果)(股)(指)(持)(续)(下)(移)(,就)(意)(味)(着)(市)(场)(交)(易)(者)(对)(产)(业)(经)(济)(领)(域)(的)(前)(景)(持)(有)(谨)(慎)(的)(态)(度)(。这)(反)(过)(来)(,也)(会)(进)(一)(步)(影)(响)(到)(更)(多)(的)(民)(众)(对)(经)(济)(前)(景)(的)(判)(断)(,从)(而)(减)(少)(支)(出)(。由)(此)(可)(见)(,指)(数)(随)(波)(逐)(流)(,可)(能)(会)(影)(响)(到)(民)(众)(信)(心)(,进)(而)(影)(响)(到)(消)(费)(,也)(就)(进)(入)(到)(一)(个)(死)(胡)(同)(般)(的)(循)(环)(。
所)(以)(,对)(于)(当)(前)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(走)(势)(的)(确)(需)(要)(予)(以)(拉)(升)(的)(力)(量)(,以)(重)(振)(市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(的)(信)(心)(,重)(塑)(民)(众)(的)(预)(期)(。更)(何)(况)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(当)(前)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(估)(值)(处)(在)(历)(史)(上)(的)(诸)(多)(熊)(市)(周)(期)(末)(尾)(的)(区)(域)(。部)(分)(产)(业)(领)(域)(的)(估)(值)(数)(据)(甚)(至)(创)(出)(了)(历)(史)(新)(低)(,比)(如)(说)(银)(行)(股)(、券)(商)(股)(等)(估)(值)(数)(据)(均)(创)(历)(史)(新)(低)(,从)(而)(为)(多)(头)(的)(布)(局)(提)(供)(了)(清)(晰)(的)(方)(向)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(则)(是)(因)(为)(A股)(拥)(有)(强)(有)(力)(的)(机)(构)(资)(金)(队)(伍)(,包)(括)(证)(金)(、汇)(金)(、公)(募)(基)(金)(等)(。而)(且)(,后)(续)(“援)(军)(”的)(资)(金)(实)(力)(更)(是)(值)(得)(期)(待)(,比)(如)(说)(养)(老)(目)(标)(基)(金)(的)(相)(继)(成)(立)(,再)(比)(如)(说)(蜂)(拥)(而)(至)(的)(境)(外)(资)(金)(。
这)(些)(资)(金)(的)(关)(注)(焦)(点)(相)(对)(清)(晰)(、专)(注)(,那)(就)(是)(估)(值)(处)(于)(历)(史)(低)(位)(区)(域)(的)(大)(金)(融)(股)(、大)(基)(建)(股)(等)(品)(种)(。此)(类)(个)(股)(又)(是)(典)(型)(的)(指)(标)(股)(、权)(重)(股)(,所)(以)(,机)(构)(资)(金)(在)(近)(期)(大)(力)(配)(置)(此)(类)(个)(股)(,初)(步)(扭)(转)(了)(A股)(的)(低)(迷)(态)(势)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(更)(是)(有)(形)(成)(底)(部)(反)(转)(的)(K线)(形)(态)(,市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(的)(信)(心)(开)(始)(恢)(复)(。
体)(现)(在)(盘)(面)(中)(,就)(是)(短)(线)(A股)(市)(场)(居)(然)(不)(惧)(长)(假)(效)(应)(,在)(周)(三)(仍)(然)(出)(现)(了)(放)(量)(回)(升)(的)(态)(势)(,这)(本)(身)(就)(说)(明)(了)(近)(期)(积)(极)(配)(置)(股)(票)(的)(多)(头)(,志)(在)(长)(远)(,不)(仅)(仅)(是)(国)(庆)(长)(假)(前)(后)(的)(走)(势)(预)(期)(,而)(且)(还)(在)(于)(他)(们)(对)(整)(个)(四)(季)(度)(的)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(走)(势)(也)(寄)(予)(较)(高)(的)(期)(望)(值)(。
这)(也)(得)(到)(了)(相)(关)(信)(息)(的)(佐)(证)(。比)(如)(说)(对)(于)(较)(为)(乐)(观)(的)(政)(策)(预)(期)(,近)(期)(关)(于)(科)(研)(费)(用)(充)(抵)(所)(得)(税)(的)(信)(息)(就)(说)(明)(了)(减)(税)(措)(施)(正)(在)(逐)(一)(落)(实)(。而)(且)(减)(税)(是)(有)(针)(对)(性)(,主)(要)(是)(扶)(持)(科)(技)(创)(新)(领)(域)(,这)(些)(信)(息)(的)(叠)(加)(,就)(进)(一)(步)(证)(实)(了)(我)(国)(科)(技)(产)(业)(升)(级)(的)(方)(向)(较)(为)(清)(晰)(,这)(无)(疑)(会)(提)(振)(市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(对)(我)(国)(经)(济)(的)(信)(心)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,关)(于)(外)(商)(投)(资)(负)(面)(清)(单)(的)(进)(一)(步)(落)(实)(的)(预)(期)(,会)(强)(化)(市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(对)(未)(来)(改)(革)(开)(放)(深)(入)(的)(积)(极)(预)(期)(。再)(叠)(加)(当)(前)(A股)(的)(低)(估)(值)(数)(据)(等)(因)(素)(,可)(以)(对)(未)(来)(的)(走)(势)(有)(着)(更)(为)(乐)(观)(的)(预)(期)(。
值)(得)(指)(出)(的)(是)(,目)(前)(A股)(还)(叠)(加)(核)(心)(资)(产)(定)(价)(权)(的)(因)(素)(。回)(顾)(A股)(市)(场)(,公)(募)(基)(金)(今)(年)(是)(发)(展)(20周)(年)(整)(,主)(动)(型)(产)(品)(持)(股)(市)(值)(只)(有)(1.3万)(亿)(元)(,而)(境)(外)(资)(金)(持)(股)(已)(经)(约)(有)(1万)(亿)(元)(。然)(而)(MSCI才)(只)(纳)(入)(了)(A股)(5%的)(权)(重)(,未)(来)(有)(望)(进)(一)(步)(上)(升)(到)(10%、20%、25%乃)(至)(更)(多)(。而)(且)(,富)(时)(罗)(素)(指)(数)(也)(将)(接)(纳)(A股)(。既)(如)(此)(,A股)(核)(心)(资)(产)(的)(定)(价)(权)(会)(在)(谁)(手)(中)(呢)(?据)(此)(,可)(以)(讲)(,从)(全)(球)(资)(产)(配)(置)(的)(逻)(辑)(来)(看)(,中)(国)(的)(优)(质)(权)(益)(资)(产)(这)(个)(时)(候)(应)(该)(是)(买)(而)(不)(是)(继)(续)(卖)(!当)(明)(确)(了)(这)(一)(点)(之)(后)(,对)(未)(来)(走)(势)(的)(预)(期)(就)(更)(为)(乐)(观)(,结)(构)(性)(配)(置)(的)(思)(路)(也)(就)(更)(清)(晰)(。那)(就)(是)(积)(极)(配)(置)(处)(于)(低)(位)(的)(核)(心)(资)(产)(,伴)(随)(A股)(市)(场)(进)(入)(新)(一)(轮)(的)(强)(势)(周)(期)(。
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