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是什么春风“轻抚”资本市场

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月14日 13:57:59
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(式)(应)(对)(突)(然)(出)(现)(的)(开)(户)(人)(潮)(。  在)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(的)(年)(份)(里)(,年)(底)(行)(情)(被)(视)(为)(“鸡)(肋)(”行)(情)(,也)(是)(股)(民)(全)(年)(投)(资)(的)(盈)(利)(确)(定)(性)(最)(差)(的)(时)(间)(段)(。而)(年)(底)(出)(现)(牛)(市)(启)(动)(的)(迹)(象)(,更)(是)(难)(得)(一)(见)(。这)(并)(非)(是)(一)(种)(基)(于)(指)(数)(K线)(历)(史)(走)(势)(得)(出)(技)(术)(分)(析)(结)(果)(,其)(背)(后)(是)(资)(金)(面)(因)(素)(扰)(动)(的)(内)(因)(。  首)(先)(,每)(年)(年)(底)(,是)(保)(险)(、基)(金)(、券)(商)(自)(营)(等)(股)(市)(的)(主)(力)(机)(构)(计)(算)(全)(年)(收)(益)(的)(时)(间)(。在)(每)(年)(的)(最)(后)(两)(个)(月)(,如)(果)(类)(似)(保)(险)(、券)(商)(自)(营)(这)(样)(的)(机)(构)(完)(成)(了)(全)(年)(的)(业)(绩)(目)(标)(,就)(会)(选)(择)(空)(仓)(兑)(现)(收)(益)(。而)(公)(募)(基)(金)(经)(理)(为)(了)(业)(绩)(排)(名)(,则)(会)(各)(出)(“奇)(招)(”,例)(如)(抛)(售)(“大)(众)(情)(人)(股)(”,转)(买)(冷)(门)(股)(,从)(达)(到)(既)(打)(压)(竞)(争)(对)(手)(,同)(时)(为)(自)(己)(争)(取)(更)(好)(业)(绩)(的)(目)(的)(。机)(构)(的)(这)(些)(操)(作)(,客)(观)(上)(导)(致)(了)(年)(底)(行)(情)(的)(投)(资)(主)(线)(凌)(乱)(,因)(此)(股)(民)(参)(与)(也)(热)(情)(不)(高)(。  其)(次)(,每)(到)(年)(底)(,也)(是)(会)(计)(年)(度)(结)(束)(的)(时)(候)(,很)(多)(民)(间)(资)(金)(也)(需)(要)(回)(笼)(,跟)(全)(年)(其)(他)(时)(间)(比)(,社)(会)(上)(资)(金)(面)(偏)(于)(紧)(张)(,牛)(市)(行)(情)(的)(启)(动)(也)(缺)(乏)(资)(金)(面)(的)(土)(壤)(。  2014年)(底)(的)(A股)(出)(现)(这)(样)(的)(“异)(象)(”,是)(偶)(然)(还)(是)(必)(然)(?  这)(一)(切)(,只)(是)(水)(到)(渠)(成)(的)(结)(果)(而)(已)(。  再)(回)(首)(,一)(缕)(春)(风)(早)(在)(2013年)(初)(已)(“轻)(抚)(”资)(本)(市)(场)(。当)(年)(年)(初)(手)(游)(和)(影)(视)(传)(媒)(行)(业)(牛)(股)(辈)(出)(,开)(启)(创)(业)(板)(的)(局)(部)(牛)(市)(,其)(后)(,金)(融)(改)(革)(及)(民)(营)(银)(行)(概)(念)(,文)(化)(传)(媒)(板)(块)(,去)(“IOE”概)(念)(,互)(联)(网)(金)(融)(,上)(海)(自)(贸)(区)(概)(念)(,电)(商)(概)(念)(等)(相)(继)(成)(为)(市)(场)(的)(热)(点)(。  进)(入)(2014年)(,机)(器)(人)(,智)(能)(家)(居)(、军)(工)(资)(产)(证)(券)(化)(等)(热)(点)(概)(念)(继)(续)(此)(起)(彼)(伏)(,到)(了)(下)(半)(年)(,市)(场)(进)(入)(普)(涨)(行)(情)(,但)(在)(金)(融)(地)(产)(板)(块)(的)(压)(制)(下)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(表)(现)(并)(不)(明)(显)(,进)(入)(11月)(下)(旬)(,随)(着)(沪)(港)(通)(的)(开)(启)(以)(及)(降)(息)(消)(息)(的)(出)(炉)(,清)(风)(已)(经)(加)(强)(成)(为)(让)(投)(资)(界)(人)(士)(也)(惊)(叹)(的)(“龙)(卷)(风)(”,银)(行)(、地)(产)(、券)(商)(等)(超)(级)(权)(重)(板)(块)(在)(风)(口)(也)(轻)(如)(一)(头)(猪)(。  对)(这)(股)(“风)(”的)(行)(进)(轨)(迹)(做)(一)(个)(全)(面)(回)(溯)(,我)(们)(发)(现)(,“风)(”所)(跟)(随)(的)(,正)(是)(改)(革)(指)(引)(的)(方)(向)(。  改)(革)(指)(引)(的)(,不)(仅)(是)(产)(业)(的)(方)(向)(。改)(革)(指)(引)(的)(,还)(有)(投)(资)(者)(的)(心)(。  对)(资)(本)(市)(场)(来)(说)(,一)(个)(容)(易)(被)(忽)(略)(的)(大)(利)(好)(就)(是)(中)(国)(正)(在)(重)(点)(编)(织)(的)(国)(际)(反)(腐)(天)(网)(。  今)(年)(1月)(,中)(央)(领)(导)(要)(求)(加)(大)(国)(际)(追)(逃)(追)(赃)(力)(度)(;3月)(,最)(高)(检)(下)(发)(《关)(于)(进)(一)(步)(加)(强)(追)(逃)(追)(赃)(工)(作)(的)(通)(知)(》,强)(调)(决)(不)(允)(许)(任)(何)(人)(逍)(遥)(法)(外)(7月)(,公)(安)(部)(部)(署)(“猎)(狐)(2014”行)(动)(缉)(捕)(在)(逃)(境)(外)(经)(济)(犯)(罪)(嫌)(疑)(人)(;10月)(,最)(高)(法)(、最)(高)(检)(、公)(安)(部)(、外)(交)(部)(联)(合)(发)(布)(《关)(于)(敦)(促)(在)(逃)(境)(外)(经)(济)(犯)(罪)(人)(员)(投)(案)(自)(首)(的)(通)(告)(》,敦)(促)(外)(逃)(贪)(官)(投)(案)(自)(首)(;11月)(,APEC北)(京)(会)(议)(通)(过)(《北)(京)(反)(腐)(败)(宣)(言)(》,APEC反)(腐)(败)(执)(法)(合)(作)(网)(络)(正)(式)(运)(行)(,G20通)(过)(反)(腐)(行)(动)(计)(划)(,习)(近)(平)(总)(书)(记)(出)(访)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(、新)(西)(兰)(、斐)(济)(时)(均)(提)(出)(加)(强)(追)(逃)(追)(赃)(合)(作)(……  据)(媒)(体)(报)(道)(称)(,至)(12月)(1日)(全)(国)(公)(安)(机)(关)(已)(从)(美)(国)(、加)(拿)(大)(、西)(班)(牙)(等)(57个)(国)(家)(和)(地)(区)(抓)(获)(在)(逃)(境)(外)(经)(济)(犯)(罪)(嫌)(疑)(人)(329人)(。  正)(如)(北)(京)(师)(范)(大)(学)(国)(际)(刑)(法)(研)(究)(所)(所)(长)(黄)(风)(所)(说)(,反)(腐)(败)(国)(际)(合)(作)(从)(来)(没)(有)(像)(今)(天)(这)(样)(被)(中)(央)(高)(度)(重)(视)(。  国)(际)(反)(腐)(天)(网)(的)(搭)(建)(,不)(但)(震)(慑)(了)(腐)(败)(分)(子)(,更)(堵)(住)(了)(中)(国)(资)(金)(的)(外)(流)(缺)(口)(。  据)(媒)(体)(引)(用)(中)(纪)(委)(2010年)(发)(布)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,近)(30年)(来)(,外)(逃)(官)(员)(数)(量)(约)(4000人)(,携)(走)(资)(金)(500多)(亿)(美)(元)(,人)(均)(约)(1亿)(元)(。另)(有)(媒)(体)(报)(道)(称)(,中)(国)(社)(科)(院)(2011年)(的)(一)(份)(报)(告)(显)(示)(,从)(上)(世)(纪)(90年)(代)(以)(来)(,包)(括)(“裸)(官)(”在)(内)(的)(各)(种)(贪)(官)(等)(有)(1.8万)(人)(外)(逃)(,携)(带)(款)(项)(8000亿)(元)(。  这)(些)(资)(金)(如)(果)(留)(在)(国)(内)(,无)(疑)(最)(终)(都)(会)(成)(为)(社)(会)(建)(设)(的)(资)(金)(。  而)(中)(国)(资)(金)(外)(流)(,还)(有)(另)(一)(个)(重)(要)(方)(式)(—移)(民)(。中)(国)(富)(人)(移)(民)(现)(象)(曾)(经)(引)(发)(社)(会)(的)(极)(大)(关)(注)(,富)(人)(移)(民)(的)(同)(时)(,无)(论)(是)(正)(规)(渠)(道)(还)(是)(灰)(色)(渠)(道)(,都)(会)(带)(走)(大)(量)(的)(资)(金)(,具)(体)(数)(据)(难)(以)(统)(计)(,但)(是)(海)(外)(投)(资)(移)(民)(,少)(则)(数)(百)(万)(,多)(则)(千)(万)(的)(资)(金)(要)(求)(,可)(以)(想)(象)(富)(人)(移)(民)(带)(走)(的)(财)(富)(也)(会)(是)(天)(文)(数)(字)(。  这)(些)(财)(富)(的)(外)(流)(后)(,有)(多)(少)(进)(入)(发)(达)(国)(家)(的)(股)(市)(难)(以)(统)(计)(,但)(从)(外)(媒)(报)(道)(中)(可)(知)(,推)(高)(了)(不)(少)(外)(国)(城)(市)(的)(楼)(市)(。这)(些)(资)(金)(如)(果)(留)(在)(国)(内)(,A股)(又)(会)(是)(怎)(么)(样)(一)(副)(景)(象)(?  反)(腐)(,无)(疑)(会)(大)(大)(降)(低)(社)(会)(整)(体)(营)(商)(成)(本)(,会)(为)(每)(个)(人)(营)(造)(更)(好)(的)(工)(作)(生)(活)(环)(境)(。  追)(逃)(追)(赃)(只)(是)(中)(国)(反)(腐)(大)(网)(的)(其)(中)(一)(部)(分)(,国)(内)(反)(腐)(和)(清)(退)(等)(工)(作)(同)(样)(是)(成)(硕)(果)(累)(累)(。  反)(腐)(,反)(的)(是)(腐)(,留)(的)(是)(心)(。在)(股)(市)(里)(,我)(们)(已)(经)(可)(以)(直)(接)(看)(到)(改)(革)(带)(来)(的)(心)(跳)(。  2013年)(十)(八)(大)(三)(中)(全)(会)(的)(“改)(革)(60条)(”发)(布)(后)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(连)(续)(三)(连)(阳)(,2014年)(10月)(28日)(,十)(八)(届)(四)(中)(全)(会)(全)(面)(推)(进)(依)(法)(治)(国)(决)(定)(全)(文)(发)(布)(,A股)(市)(场)(最)(大)(的)(“风)(”刮)(起)(,至)(12月)(3日)(上)(证)(指)(数)(已)(经)(出)(现)(接)(近)(500点)(上)(涨)(,涨)(幅)(超)(过)(20%。  截)(至)(2013年)(底)(,中)(国)(的)(股)(民)(两)(市)(开)(户)(数)(超)(过)(1.7亿)(户)(,简)(单)(折)(算)(对)(应)(的)(股)(民)(数)(量)(约)(为)(8500万)(人)(。  股)(票)(市)(场)(里)(,有)(“用)(手)(投)(票)(”和)(“用)(脚)(投)(票)(”的)(说)(法)(,“用)(手)(投)(票)(”意)(思)(是)(股)(民)(非)(常)(认)(同)(,因)(此)(会)(进)(行)(“买)(入)(”操)(作)(,“用)(脚)(投)(票)(”则)(是)(表)(示)(不)(认)(同)(,卖)(出)(股)(票)(。  A股)(市)(场)(的)(上)(涨)(,无)(疑)(是)(投)(资)(者)(在)(“用)(手)(投)(票)(”,为)(改)(革)(欢)(呼)(。  改)(革)(蓝)(图)(已)(经)(可)(以)(见)(到)(雏)(形)(,并)(且)(日)(渐)(清)(晰)(:对)(内)(简)(政)(放)(权)(、户)(籍)(改)(革)(、金)(融)(改)(革)(、国)(企)(改)(革)(、土)(地)(改)(革)(,设)(立)(自)(贸)(区)(;对)(外)(,实)(施)(“一)(路)(一)(带)(”战)(略)(,筹)(建)(亚)(洲)(基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(银)(行)(等)(等)(。  这)(些)(措)(施)(振)(奋)(了)(整)(个)(社)(会)(,也)(振)(奋)(了)(A股)(市)(场)(。  改)(革)(在)(跷)(跷)(板)(的)(这)(一)(端)(降)(低)(了)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(的)(风)(险)(,在)(另)(一)(端)(却)(提)(升)(了)(投)(资)(者)(的)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(。  “社)(会)(财)(富)(向)(A股)(涌)(入)(热)(情)(超)(预)(期)(”,获)(得)(新)(财)(富)(策)(略)(分)(析)(师)(第)(一)(名)(的)(张)(忆)(东)(团)(队)(在)(其)(策)(略)(报)(告)(中)(如)(此)(表)(示)(。  今)(天)(,就)(经)(济)(形)(势)(而)(言)(,在)(资)(本)(市)(场)(投)(资)(者)(眼)(里)(和)(一)(些)(传)(统)(眼)(光)(的)(经)(济)(学)(家)(眼)(里)(,其)(实)(有)(着)(很)(大)(的)(差)(异)(。  如)(果)(从)(统)(计)(数)(据)(进)(行)(解)(读)(,中)(国)(的)(经)(济)(正)(在)(下)(台)(阶)(,但)(如)(果)(把)(资)(本)(市)(场)(作)(为)(经)(济)(晴)(雨)(表)(解)(读)(,那)(么)(,很)(明)(显)(,股)(市)(正)(在)(准)(备)(上)(台)(阶)(—资)(本)(市)(场)(已)(经)(在)(准)(备)(一)(场)(“盛)(宴)(”。  在)(投)(资)(者)(眼)(里)(,宏)(观)(经)(济)(数)(据)(已)(经)(失)(真)(,失)(真)(的)(原)(因)(在)(于)(这)(些)(宏)(观)(数)(据)(里)(面)(,“夕)(阳)(行)(业)(”占)(据)(了)(太)(多)(的)(权)(重)(,而)(代)(表)(着)(新)(繁)(荣)(的)(因)(素)(,却)(被)(轻)(视)(了)(。  结)(合)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(的)(自)(上)(而)(下)(的)(研)(究)(方)(式)(,2012年)(前)(,一)(直)(是)(主)(流)(的)(研)(究)(方)(法)(,但)(及)(至)(2013年)(,一)(切)(都)(改)(变)(了)(。券)(商)(的)(策)(略)(研)(究)(员)(和)(基)(金)(经)(理)(路)(演)(时)(,不)(再)(重)(复)(从)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(、产)(业)(到)(个)(股)(的)(逻)(辑)(,而)(是)(转)(而)(畅)(想)(人)(类)(生)(活)(方)(式)(的)(改)(变)(,分)(析)(“90”后)(的)(行)(为)(习)(惯)(。  基)(金)(经)(理)(的)(必)(读)(作)(品)(也)(变)(成)(《奇)(点)(临)(近)(》和)(《失)(控)(》,前)(者)(揭)(示)(科)(技)(发)(展)(为)(人)(类)(社)(会)(带)(来)(的)(巨)(大)(影)(响)(,后)(者)(是)(被)(誉)(为)(硅)(谷)(思)(想)(家)(凯)(文)(·凯)(利)(的)(著)(作)(,该)(作)(品)(被)(追)(捧)(为)(“互)(联)(网)(圣)(经)(”。  新)(繁)(荣)(来)(了)(,资)(本)(市)(场)(轻)(易)(就)(承)(担)(起)(了)(经)(济)(调)(结)(构)(的)(重)(任)(。  新)(的)(生)(活)(方)(式)(;新)(的)(生)(产)(方)(式)(;新)(的)(消)(费)(习)(惯)(;新)(技)(术)(……在)(股)(市)(上)(,资)(本)(竞)(逐)(的)(,正)(是)(这)(些)(充)(满)(“想)(象)(力)(”的)(领)(域)(。借)(助)(资)(本)(的)(力)(量)(,一)(些)(新)(兴)(产)(业)(正)(超)(速)(发)(展)(,如)(影)(视)(业)(、机)(器)(人)(、互)(联)(网)(等)(产)(业)(。这)(些)(产)(业)(的)(大)(发)(展)(,又)(反)(过)(来)(促)(进)(了)(社)(会)(资)(源)(向)(这)(些)(领)(域)(进)(一)(步)(集)(中)(,再)(进)(一)(步)(为)(产)(业)(的)(发)(展)(加)(速)(,良)(性)(循)(环)(已)(经)(形)(成)(。  信)(心)(,是)(股)(市)(最)(大)(的)(风)(口)(。(编)(辑)(卜)(坚)(郑)(世)(凤)()  作)(者)(:简)(俊)(东)((来)(源)(:21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)()点)(击)(进)(入)(【股)(友)(会)(】参)(与)(讨)(论)(
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